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A 10,000-Word Deep Dive - Four Years of AI Agent Evolution and the Underlying Logic
In the four years since ChatGPT debuted at the end of 2022, AI Agent has undergone a paradigm shift from a chatbox tool to a 24/7 autonomous digital worker. The industry successively produced multiple waves of capital bubbles around prompt engineers, vector databases, GPT Store, low-code Agent platforms, and Vibe Coding, while large numbers of middle-layer projects disappeared rapidly as the underlying infrastructure iterated. This article systematically traces the technical evolution of agents from Generation 0 to Generation 4, breaks down the architectural breakthroughs, industry bubbles, and fatal flaws of each generation, distills six underlying laws that run through the entire evolution, and offers an objective judgment on prospective Generation 5 technical directions and the industry's real moats.
Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket
Based on a 2026 SSRN working paper, this post summarizes findings from Polymarket's full trading history, profits are highly concentrated, and execution style matters at least as much as being "right".
How Does a Philosophy Professor Think About AI?
Yu Mingfeng (Associate Professor, Department of Philosophy, Tongji University) talks about philosophy and AI. I found it surprisingly insightful.
What Did Peak Ji Talk About Before Manus Was Acquired by Meta?
Notes from a long interview with Peak Ji (co-founder & chief scientist of Manus) shortly before the rumored Meta acquisition—focused on agents, product choices, context engineering, and the AI industry.
2025 - A Year of "First Years"
First years
My High School and College Football Jerseys
The two most important football jerseys in my life.
Talking About the Stock Market (5) - How Should a Retail Investor Think About Gold?
A retail perspective on gold in 2025, with a few practical data points to track - gold price, USD index, central bank buying, gold-silver ratio, and macro debt context.
On *The Great Comeback of the Chinese Women's Volleyball Team* and the 2002 World Championship
A brief examination of the public opinion environment surrounding the Chinese women's volleyball team at the 2002 World Championship.
Tech Giants Cut Jobs to Fund AI, While Money Circulates Among Giants—What's Going On?
In 2025, tech layoffs exceeded 180k while AI spending exceeded $300B. Much of the money seems to circulate among big players rather than turning into clear profits. In the end, AI must land on people's devices, not just in data centers.
Talking About the Stock Market (4) - How to Read BBI?
BBI is a common indicator on daily/monthly charts. It's much simpler than staring at many moving averages.
Talking About the Stock Market (3) - How to Read MACD?
MACD looks complex, but the core idea is surprisingly simple - compare "recent performance" with "longer-term average"—in other words, compare the asset to itself.
Talking About the Stock Market (2) - Can RSI Actually Help You Make Money?
RSI is useful for short-term trading guidance, especially in ranging markets. The indicator itself is not magic; how you use it matters.
Talking About the Stock Market (1) - Bollinger Bands in Practice
A technical indicator I personally like - Bollinger Bands—its idea and the main scenarios where it is useful.
After Nanjing Was Eliminated in the 2025 Jiangsu City League Semifinal - Why Was It More Popular Than the Chinese Super League?
I keep wondering - if their level is probably only around the Chinese Champions League, and Nanjing's regular professional matches in China League One draw so little attention, why did this tournament explode in popularity?
Twenty Million Donated Steps:Are Direction, Ability, and Persistence Really an Impossible Triangle?
Direction, ability, and persistence - is that really an impossible triangle?
A collection of my thoughts on technology, products, design, and the world around me. Ideas worth thinking about a little longer, including some that have yet to find a clear answer.