In the Next 10 Years, Will Students and Retirees Be the Real "Core Consumers"?
Author: Zhu Anfeng
After reading The U.S. city of the future, I started thinking about a question:
In the next 10 years, what kinds of products will truly have a market?
You might say: obviously products for young people, white-collar workers, and the middle class. They have money and are willing to pay for experience.
But from another angle: have you noticed that the real mass consumer groups are quietly changing?
The two most important groups may actually be students and retirees.
Why these two groups?
Look around and you will see:
- The student population is huge and still growing. China has about 44.3 million university students, not to mention vocational education and the massive exam ecosystems.
- The retiree population is surging. By 2023, people aged 60+ exceeded 280 million, and by 2035 it may exceed 400 million.
What do these two groups have in common?
- Lots of time, not much money. Plenty of free time each day, but limited budget.
- Comfortable online. Students are digital natives; older people are also adapting quickly to short videos and online learning.
- Strong demand for entertainment and learning. One prepares for the future; the other wants life to be more interesting.
So the most profitable products may not be expensive products, but products that let people spend time cheaply.
What product directions look promising?
From a product angle, the logic is simple: users with "time-rich, budget-limited" profiles want high value-for-money time consumption products.
1) Low-cost, high-immersion content (short video, games, AI entertainment)
- Short video already takes huge time from older users.
- Games and AI entertainment are spreading across both students and older groups.
- Interactive AI entertainment (chat, stories, etc.) may be a major track.
2) Online learning & lifelong education
- Students are busy with exams; online learning remains a rigid demand.
- Retirees also learn online; many older users learn languages, photography, painting, etc.
Opportunities:
- AI-personalized learning for students
- Light, social interest-based education for retirees
3) Low-cost offline social experiences (citywalk, community activities)
Citywalk works because it is cheap, immersive, and social. Low-cost but high-social-value experiences may become more popular.
Opportunities:
- Affordable, interactive offline social scenes
- Community activities and shared spaces
How to build for this future? Three core ideas
- Free + time consumption
Ads + free usage fits "time-rich, cash-poor" users. Games, short videos, and AI entertainment already follow this model.
- Use AI to personalize experience
AI can tailor learning plans for students, and act as a virtual companion for retirees.
- Online + offline for immersion
Combine short video with offline events; or let AI generate personalized routes for citywalk experiences.
Have you thought this through?
In the past, people focused on "consumption upgrade" and premium products. But now you may realize that "consumption downgrade" is also a massive opportunity.
There may be fewer rich consumers, but there are more users with lots of time who are willing to spend a little money to have fun.
Can your product meet their needs?